US consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, with the University of Michigan’s final reading at 49.8, even after a small improvement from the preliminary 47.6. The drop came as households absorbed the war in Iran and a jump in year-ahead inflation expectations to 4.7 percent.
The survey’s director said the ceasefire in the Middle East made Americans feel a bit better about the shock to gas prices and other prices, but added that military and diplomatic developments alone are unlikely to lift confidence if supply constraints and energy costs do not ease. AAA said gas prices have risen by more than $1 a gallon on average since the war began, while short-term inflation expectations jumped by the largest monthly amount in a year.
That sets up a squeeze for consumers already facing stubborn inflation and a weak job market, even though March retail sales were solid and bank earnings suggest household finances are holding up better than the mood survey implies. In Venezuela, the contrast is even starker: three months of minimum wage doesn’t buy a single US dollar, and shoppers in Caracas are still finding that full shelves do not mean full wallets.
For now, the next test is the same one in both stories, whether prices keep easing and whether promised policy moves arrive on schedule. In Washington, consumers are waiting to see if fuel and inflation expectations cool further; in Caracas, Delcy Rodríguez has promised a “responsible” wage increase by May 1, a decision that will show whether the post-Maduro economic reset can deliver anything ordinary Venezuelans can actually spend.
