China’s leadership is projecting confidence on growth even as structural headwinds persist. President Xi Jinping said China is set to meet its about 5% growth goal for 2025, a message aimed at stabilizing expectations at home and signaling resilience abroad.
The “who” driving outcomes remains the state. Beijing has leaned on industrial policy and export competitiveness while trying to keep financial risks contained. But the “what” holding back a cleaner rebound is still property and weak consumer demand. Foreign Policy described 2025 as a year of patience marked by a prolonged real-estate slump that has cratered sales and pressured local-government finances, a key channel because land sales historically plugged budget gaps.
Looking into 2026, the global context may add friction. Deutsche Welle cited OECD estimates that world growth slows from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, while a U.S. tariff regime lifted average duties to 17.9%, up from 2.5%, which has already raised uncertainty for trade and supply chains in Asia. Even with a temporary easing, DW described the U.S.-China truce as a 12-month ceasefire rather than a durable settlement.
Likely next steps are more targeted support for consumption and incremental property stabilization, but investors should expect policy to prioritize supply-side strength and strategic industries. Position for a China story that can still deliver headline growth near 5%, yet remains vulnerable to property deleveraging and trade shocks. Watch how quickly domestic demand improves, not just exports.
