U.S. mortgage rates inched lower into the Christmas week, but the move was more a “steadying” than a true breakthrough. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.18% from 6.21%, while the 15-year rose to 5.50% from 5.47%, according to Freddie Mac’s update. That keeps borrowers in the same tight range seen since late October, helpful at the margin but still historically expensive for first-time buyers.
The “why” is mostly the bond market, not the Fed’s policy rate. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury, which hovered around 4.14% to 4.16% this week as investors weighed conflicting signals: a hotter growth print and cooler inflation and labor data. Realtor.com noted rates reflected an up-and-down bond market, with holiday-thinned trading amplifying small swings.
What’s changed for buyers is supply and negotiating leverage, not the sticker rate. Realtor.com says inventory is higher than last year in most markets, and more sellers are cutting asking prices as homes sit longer. That’s a sharp turn from the ultra-tight pandemic era, even if it hasn’t produced meaningful nationwide price declines yet.
Still, affordability remains the gating factor. Stronger GDP hasn’t translated into broad comfort about job security, and the labor market is increasingly described as “no hire, no fire.” If you’re shopping for a home, focus on what you can control: payment math, purchase price negotiation, and the option to refinance later if rates drift closer to 6%. Waiting for a magical rate level can be costlier than buying the right home at the right price.
