Polymarket has a trust problem after more than 80 users were found to have placed bets with suspicious characteristics. The accounts won money across nearly 30 topics dating back to at least 2024, from Israel’s strike on Iran to the regulatory debate over cryptocurrency trading.
One cluster was especially blunt. On the evening of June 12, 13 users wagered a total of $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran by the end of that week, even though the odds showed an attack was unlikely. Seven of the accounts had opened just days earlier. Israel attacked Iran later that day, and the accounts made more than $600,000 in profits.
Warning signs
The review flagged long-shot bets that paid off, well-timed wagers by recently opened accounts, and users who bet on only a few related topics without ever losing. Those signs hint at insider trading but do not prove it definitively.
Polymarket’s growth has already pulled prediction markets into politics and national security. A military reservist was recently indicted in Israel over a scheme to bet on the June strike. A U.S. Army Special Forces soldier was accused last month of wagering on the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president.
Polymarket lets users bet on events ranging from war to crypto, and that reach is the problem now in view. The suspicious trades were not limited to one headline or one account cluster. The evidence now stops at warning signs, not definitive proof.
