Grace Suzuki is a staff writer at P&L, covering business, technology, and global markets. She previously worked in M&A advisory, focusing on software, consumer deals, and cross-border transactions.
GLP-1 receptor agonists convert a diffuse obesity cost pool into a concentrated pharmaceutical revenue stream controlled by a highly constrained manufacturing duopoly.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk navigate a $200 billion incretin market through divergent capital allocation strategies prioritizing domestic manufacturing and acquisitive capacity integration.
Markets must price a restrictive but not recessionary regime, where credit tightens, refinancing costs rise, and cheap money no longer anchors multiples.
Money now carries a real cost because inflation stays above target and growth is still resilient enough to keep policy restrictive.
Cheap leverage is ending as higher funding costs, balance sheet runoff, and positive term premiums reset valuations across credit and duration markets.
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Commodity demand is becoming policy-mandated while supply stays constrained by geology, permitting, and capital discipline.
The old price-up, capital-in, output-up loop is weakening as permitting, geology, labor, and infrastructure cap how quickly new supply can emerge.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.75% on Tuesday, marking its highest level since July 2025 following a sharp spike since late February.
