Americans buying burgers are running into a beef market with less room for error. Lean ground beef has become so expensive that the average price hit $8.34 a pound, above the $7.25 federal minimum wage, while federal data put even the cheapest ground beef variety at more than $5.40 a pound.
The squeeze starts on ranches. The U.S. beef cow herd is at its smallest since 1951 after drought pushed producers to sell cows earlier than planned, and rebuilding a herd is slow because a heifer kept today can take two to three years before her calf enters the beef supply. In grocery ads tracked by USDA, organic ground beef averaged $11.99 this week, conventional 90% lean averaged $7.42, and cheaper 70% lean beef was $4.99, up from $2.84 five years earlier.
Border risks
The supply problem is regional, not just domestic. North American cattle and beef markets are closely linked: U.S. packing plants rely on young cattle from Mexico and slaughter-ready cattle from Canada, while the U.S. also exports beef products and fed cattle to Mexico. Almost all U.S. cattle imports come from those two countries, totaling about 2.1 million head in 2024, and live cattle imports plunged by more than 50% in 2025.
A screwworm outbreak has made that cross-border flow harder. Young cattle imports from Mexico collapsed by more than 80% in 2026 because of the parasite, which has also been found in cattle in south Texas and New Mexico. Canada then banned live cattle from that region.
Trade policy is the next open issue. The U.S., Mexico and Canada must decide by July 1, 2026, whether to extend the USMCA trade deal for another 16 years or shift into annual reviews until its scheduled 2036 expiration. If talks add tariffs, paperwork or inspection delays, cattle that often cross borders during production would face another bottleneck while shoppers are already seeing higher prices at the meat case.
