Beef costs keep climbing
Americans are paying more for beef as summer grilling season begins. Ground beef is up more than 20% since January 2025, and the pressure is coming from a smaller cattle herd, drought and a screwworm outbreak that has spread from Mexico into the United States.
The supply squeeze is showing up at the store. A Colorado Sun reader said a ten-dollar pound of hamburger now feels normal, and USDA ad data showed organic 90% lean ground beef averaging $11.99 this week, with conventional 90% at $7.42. Even the cheaper 70% lean version averaged $4.99, up from $4.67 a year earlier and far above its $2.84 level five years ago. The US beef cow herd is at its smallest since 1951 after drought forced ranchers to sell cows earlier than planned.
The broader beef market is also feeling the strain. Young cattle imports from Mexico collapsed by more than 80% in 2026 because of the parasite, and the outbreak has now been found in cattle in south Texas and New Mexico. That matters because cattle and beef move back and forth across North America as part of a tightly linked market, with the US importing feeder cattle from Mexico and mature cattle from Canada.
Trade talks add another layer of uncertainty. US, Mexican and Canadian officials must decide by July 1 whether to extend USMCA for another 16 years or let it shift to annual reviews, while Canada has been sitting out the negotiations. For shoppers, the immediate issue is simple, beef is already expensive, and the next few weeks could determine whether supplies get tighter or stay where they are.
