Ground beef is already up more than 20% since January 2025. A screwworm outbreak has spread from cattle in Mexico into the United States, while the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to levels not seen since the 1950s, in part because of drought. Beef supply is tighter as summer demand rises.
A smaller herd
Shoppers are seeing the strain at the store. The USDA’s weekly advertising survey found organic 90% lean ground beef at $11.99 a pound and conventional 90% at $7.42, while even the cheaper 70% lean version averaged $4.99. A separate review found the average price of lean ground beef at $8.34 a pound, above a federal minimum wage that has stayed at $7.25 an hour since 2009.
Colorado reporting on the same price surge says there are fewer cows after years of drought and higher feed and operating costs pushed ranchers to shrink their herds. It also noted that the budget-friendly 70% lean ground beef has climbed from $4.67 a year ago and that five years ago the same cut averaged $2.84.
Trade is now another variable. U.S. and Mexican negotiators have been meeting on agriculture, and the broader North American trade pact must be decided by July 1, 2026. If the deal is not extended, the article says the three countries could move to annual reviews instead, which could complicate a supply chain in which cattle and beef cross borders as part of one integrated market.
For households that buy burgers, steaks and roasts, the immediate question is whether the herd can recover fast enough before another round of price increases.
