Lower mortgage rates are giving the housing market a pulse again, but the rebound is landing very differently depending on where you live. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.35 percent from 6.42 percent, and purchase applications jumped 10 percent for the week, a sign that buyers who had been frozen out are starting to test the market again.
That does not mean the market has snapped back. The Mortgage Bankers Association said total applications rose 7.9 percent, while refinance demand climbed 6 percent, helped by the third straight weekly drop in borrowing costs. Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, said rates fell as markets reacted to the Middle East ceasefire and lower oil prices, while Mortgage News Daily said rates were still volatile amid shifting signals on the US-Iran peace talks. For would-be buyers, that means a brief improvement in affordability, not a clean path lower.
The bigger story is the market’s split personality. Redfin data show the U.S. is still a buyer’s market, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 43 percent in March, and the worst imbalances are concentrated in Florida and Texas, where high taxes, insurance costs, and a glut of inventory have pushed leverage toward buyers. Miami, Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Dallas are all deep in buyer’s-market territory, while Ohio is holding up far better, with Columbus and Cincinnati modestly tilted to buyers and Cleveland close to balanced.
That divide is showing up in prices and in migration patterns. Austin home prices are now 27.8 percent below their 2022 peak, while many Midwest markets are still gaining ground, helped by cheaper homes, steadier job bases, and projects such as Intel’s roughly $20 billion semiconductor plant near Columbus. Florida’s insurance bill is also a drag, with Insurify data cited by Insurance Business putting the state’s average annual premium at $8,292, about 181 percent above the national average. The old Sun Belt bargain has lost some of its shine, and buyers are using that shift to force concessions.
