The OECD lifted its outlook for global growth to 3.2% in 2025 (from 2.9%), with the U.S. raised to 1.8%. The upgrade underscores better-than-expected momentum in several emerging markets even as advanced economies cool.
The next check on disinflation comes Friday with the Fed’s preferred gauge, the PCE price index. With valuations rich, a hotter print could quickly pressure risk assets; a softer one would validate recent rate cuts and extend the soft-landing narrative.
Fiscal noise is rising: Congress faces a Sept. 30 funding deadline and the Senate has rejected stopgap proposals, heightening shutdown risk. Historically markets shrug, but today’s weaker backdrop raises the odds of a real growth hit via delayed pay, spending, and data disruptions.
Hedging is visible in commodities: gold set fresh records as lower-rate expectations boosted non-yielding assets. Spot bullion rose to $3,715.50 and futures to $3,750.20 per ounce, per Yahoo Finance.
