Investors enter a holiday-shortened week still weighing whether heavy AI spending justifies high tech valuations and how labor-market data will shift the Federal Reserve's view.
The calendar makes the latter urgent: the June jobs report arrives a day early because markets are closed Friday for Independence Day. Payrolls and wage growth in that print will shape the Fed’s view of inflation and the path for rates.
Technology stocks cooled after outsized gains as investors questioned whether AI infrastructure spending will translate into profit. That reassessment produced a global tech sell-off that hit chipmakers and dragged Asian markets lower, where index circuit breakers were triggered.
Energy markets swung last week as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovered, then resumed after weekend violence and diplomatic moves. U.S. futures moved on that news, with U.S. oil futures at $70.29 on Sunday as reports said the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause attacks and plan talks this week.
What to watch this week
The slate is compact but market-moving:
- Nike reports on Tuesday, a company investors will watch for consumer demand and China sales.
- ADP private payrolls on Wednesday will be an early read on June hiring.
- Government nonfarm payrolls and wages on Thursday will give the clearest signal on labor-market heat and inflation.
Volatility is likely around those releases. Fed decisions and Strait of Hormuz oil traffic are the main wildcards. Markets then pause for the July 3 holiday.
