A group of nine anonymous accounts on the prediction market Polymarket has generated $2.4 million in profits by betting on the U.S.-Iran war with a 98% win rate. Data from analytics firm Bubblemaps shows these linked accounts accurately timed specific military events, including the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader, and the ceasefire announcement. The firm noted that the accounts frequently placed winning bets even when market odds were low, a pattern that CEO Nicolas Vaiman stated luck alone cannot explain.
Wider market impact
The pattern of suspicious trading extends beyond prediction platforms into regulated global markets. On March 23, while fighting in Iran was active, more than $800 million was staked on oil futures predicting a price drop just 15 minutes before a Truth Social post from President Trump regarding productive peace talks. The subsequent 10% slide in oil prices generated estimated profits of $80 million for those traders. Federal investigators are now probing these oil market trades for potential use of nonpublic information.
- Criminal charges. U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to federal charges after allegedly using classified information to net $400,000 on a special operations mission in Venezuela.
- Staffing cuts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which polices these markets, has seen both staffing levels and enforcement actions drop since 2024.
- Safety risks. Journalists reporting on military movements have faced death threats from bettors attempting to protect wagers worth up to $900,000.
Regulators and intelligence analysts are concerned that these irregular trades provide a public signal for adversaries to anticipate U.S. military strategy. While Polymarket maintains that it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement, the platform relies on anonymous traders using VPNs to bypass U.S. restrictions on military betting. The White House recently issued a memo to staff warning that using nonpublic information on these platforms remains a criminal offense. Federal investigations into the March 23 oil trades are ongoing.
