March jobs report pushes Fed rate cuts out on 178,000 payroll gain
Economists called it “too early” to show the Iran war’s oil shock, with crude up more than 50% since the conflict began.
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Economy
Macro indicators, policy shifts, and economic forces shaping growth and inflation.
Economy Watch
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Consumer sentiment drops to 53.3 as gas prices surge
Retail gas jumped about $1 in a month to roughly $3.98 a gallon, and consumers lifted 1-year inflation expectations to 3.8%.
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U.S. consumer sentiment hits three-month low as gas prices jump
Higher gas prices and rising borrowing costs pushed U.S. consumer sentiment to 53.3 in March, with the steepest slide among middle- and higher-income households.
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OECD lifts 2026 U.S. inflation forecast to 4.2% on Iran war shock
The OECD now sees U.S. inflation at 4.2% in 2026, far above the Fed’s 2.7% view, as the Iran war energy shock ripples through shipping and supply chains.
3 min read
Euro zone PMI hits 50.5 as energy costs surge
S&P Global’s flash composite PMI hit 50.5 in March, with weaker hiring and cooling new orders complicating ECB rate-cut plans as inflation risks rise.
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Japan core CPI slows to 1.6% as BOJ weighs rate hikes
The BOJ plans a new summer indicator to strip out one-off policy effects as it weighs hikes amid weak yen, higher oil prices and subsidy-driven CPI swings.
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Premier Li Qiang vows balanced trade after China logs $1.2 trillion surplus
Beijing promised more balanced trade and stronger protections for multinationals as FDI fell 5.7% in January and scrutiny grew in Washington and Brussels.
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China pledges balanced trade amid $1.2 trillion surplus
China pledged stepped-up measures to ease trade imbalances while exports surge and foreign investment lags.
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Premier Li pitches China as steadier partner at China Development Forum
China told multinational executives it will promote balanced trade and address surplus concerns during a tariff truce with the US.
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Middle East conflict hits March PMI forecasts worldwide
March PMIs are expected to slip as the Middle East conflict lifts energy costs and weakens business sentiment.
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Strait of Hormuz closure sends oil to post‑Ukraine highs
The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran choked Persian Gulf shipments and closed the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil prices jumped to levels not seen since 2022.
1 min read