UK GDP Beats Forecast in November as Production Rebounds
ONS data showed November GDP up 0.3% after October’s drop, partly reversing one-off weakness from a Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack.
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Economy
Macro indicators, policy shifts, and economic forces shaping growth and inflation.
China Hits Record $1.18T Surplus as US Exports Slide
US-bound shipments fell sharply, but rising exports to EU and ASEAN kept China’s 2025 surplus at $1.18T.
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December CPI Holds at 2.7% as Necessities Climb
Grocery, gas, and electricity costs rose as shutdown data quirks complicate readings, keeping the Fed cautious.
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China Bets on Domestic Demand as Fiscal Strains Persist
Beijing is prioritizing consumption via services and social coverage, but local funding strains may slow follow-through.
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Jobs Slowdown Puts March Fed Rate Cut Back in Play
December job gains fell to 50,000, fueling spring cut hopes, but wage growth risks sticky inflation.
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Mixed Labor Signals Set Up Key Test in Jobs Report
ADP’s 41,000 December gain and lower JOLTS openings contrast with rising job-loss fears before Jan. 9.
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Forecasters See K-Shaped Growth as Policy Drives Early 2026
Analysts expect expansion, with fiscal tailwinds masking rate- and price-driven strain on lower-income households.
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Tariffs May Hit Growth More Than Inflation in 2025
Research suggests actual tariff rates trail announced levels, muting price pass-through but worsening growth and unemployment risks.
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Venezuela Oil Unlocking Could Take a Decade, Not Months
Trump touted rapid production, but analysts see heavy-crude challenges, political risk, and $100 billion rebuilding needs.
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