The U.S. housing market was finally getting ready for a cautious spring rebound. The extended conflict in Iran changed the script fast, pushing up mortgage rates and making buyers more hesitant just as inventory was supposed to move.
Brad Case of Homes.com said the war has “unquestionably increased interest rates,” while also widening the uncertainty buyers and sellers have to price in. That is the real brake here: first-time buyers can wait, and many sellers are buyers too, so stalled demand spreads through the whole chain. higher inflation pressure is now showing up in housing decisions.
In Los Angeles, agents say the pause was immediate. Dag Eliason of Hilton & Hyland said some buyers pulled out of escrow after the war began, and homes that sat through winter were still sitting in spring. Median time on market in his area has climbed to 80 days, the longest in five years.
- Existing home sales fell 3.6% from February to March.
- The National Association of Realtors cut its forecast for 2026 existing-home sales growth to 4%, down from 14% in January.
- Howard Lorey of Nourmand & Associates said the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady gave the slowdown an immediate buyer-side effect.
The story is now less about whether spring demand shows up and more about whether buyers are willing to move at current financing costs. If war-driven inflation keeps mortgage rates elevated, the homes that were supposed to clear this season may be waiting until next spring instead.
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