U.S. equity futures and Asian markets signaled a cautious start to the week as President Donald Trump revived concerns of a military escalation in the Middle East. On Sunday, Trump warned Iran on Truth Social that "the Clock is Ticking" and that they should "get moving, FAST," or "there won't be anything left." The comments follow a fragile ceasefire reached in early April that has failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has kept shut since the conflict began.
Oil supply pressure
Crude oil prices advanced more than 1% following the social media posts, with Brent crude futures rising to $110.72 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbing to $107.26. The price action reflects tightening global inventories, which Goldman Sachs analysts predict could lead to severe shortages starting June 1. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, analysts estimate it would take several months for new Persian Gulf shipments to reach consuming nations and restore full production.
- Dow Jones futures slipped 100 points, or 0.2%, Sunday night.
- S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures hovered near the flatline.
- The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.61% as investors weighed geopolitical risk against persistent inflation.
The renewed tension coincides with growing scrutiny of prediction markets, where digital detectives at Bubblemaps identified nine linked accounts that netted $2.4 million on Polymarket betting on specific dates for U.S. strikes and ceasefire announcements. This "new kind of insider trading" has caught the attention of federal investigators, who are also probing an $800 million bet against oil prices placed just 15 minutes before a previous Trump post sent prices sliding 10% on March 23.
The retail and AI test
The market's focus now shifts to a heavy week of corporate data that will test the resilience of the U.S. consumer and the momentum of the AI sector. Walmart and Target are scheduled to report results this week, providing a direct look at household spending after April inflation rose to 3.8% on the back of high fuel costs.
Nvidia reports fiscal first-quarter results late Wednesday, with analysts expecting revenue growth of 73%. The chipmaker’s outlook has significant implications for the broader AI ecosystem, particularly after CEO Jensen Huang doubled sales projections for its new hardware to $1 trillion by the end of 2026. Nvidia earnings land Wednesday at 4:20 p.m. ET.
