Xi Backs 5% China Growth as Property Slump Persists
Beijing is leaning on industrial policy and exports, but housing, weak consumption, and tariff uncertainty threaten momentum.
Macro indicators, policy shifts, and economic forces shaping growth and inflation.
Beijing is leaning on industrial policy and exports, but housing, weak consumption, and tariff uncertainty threaten momentum.
Fading tariff drag and easier conditions support 2026 growth, but AI-driven job cuts could lift unemployment.
Finance Ministry outlines 2026 priorities to boost consumption, expand investment, and support innovation amid property slump.
Freddie Mac shows 30-year rates steady near 6.2%, while rising inventory boosts buyer negotiations despite tight affordability.
Summer growth beat forecasts, but sticky essentials inflation and cooling job security are dragging sentiment.
Miran downplayed inflation distortions and urged further easing as markets watch delayed GDP and PCE prints.
Thin holiday liquidity spotlights $183 billion of 2-, 5- and 7-year supply and the delayed Q3 GDP read.
Initial claims dropped to 224,000, yet rising continuing claims and 4.6% unemployment could sway Fed easing.
October’s 105,000 job drop and 4.6% unemployment print were noisy, but point to softer hiring and wages.
November payrolls rebounded but unemployment, underemployment, and wage growth weakened, while October retail sales stalled.
Markets brace for a noisy October-November jobs dump, with forecasts near 40,000–50,000 and rising unemployment.
Retail sales and investment weakened in November, and markets await clear, consumption-focused fiscal support details.