⚠️ Chip momentum looks stretched as food bites

Intel became the surprise leader of the AI trade this year, with shares up 214.6% in 2026 through Thursday after soaring 114% in April alone. Nvidia is still the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, but the hottest chip stock in the article’s tally was a company that needed a U.S. government bailout only a year ago.

AI buying has spread beyond the familiar U.S. giants. The run-up has favored companies tied to inference chips, the semiconductors used when AI agents answer user queries. Intel fits that bucket. So do Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, whose foundries make advanced chips based on designs from companies including Nvidia.

Chips went global

Emerging-market stocks are now carrying a heavy AI label. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up 22.2% in 2026 through Thursday, compared with 8.8% for the S&P 500 and 7.6% for the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF. Taiwan and South Korea have a combined 43.7% weight in that MSCI index, while China is capped at 23% and India is about 12%.

• TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the three largest components of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or Sox, was up 70.5% this year through Thursday, led by global chip companies including Intel, Nvidia, ASML and TSMC.
• Goldman Sachs said risk appetite and equity momentum are both elevated for the first time since 2000.

U.S. indexes have climbed through the Iran war, high oil prices and tariff shocks. The Nasdaq was up 11% for the year, while the Dow and S&P 500 were close to record highs. Seven companies — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — now carry 30% of the S&P 500’s weight, and all have made heavy AI investments in recent years.

Goldman’s warning was narrower than a crash call. Its risk appetite indicator rose to 1.1, a level seen only 2% of the time since 1950, while U.S. equity momentum reached a z-score above 3. The bank said past episodes point to more limited upside for the broad market and more volatility for momentum, but also said the signal is not enough to time a market peak.

The semiconductor boom still runs through geography. Taiwan is home to TSMC, and the New York Times compared the Taiwan Strait’s chip importance with the Strait of Hormuz’s oil role. China claims Taiwan, U.S. policy remains one of strategic ambiguity, and the status quo has allowed the semiconductor industry to cluster there. Any political tremor around Taiwan would hit a market already crowded into chips.

U.S. grocery bills rose 0.7% in April, the biggest monthly increase since 2022, according to Labor Department data released May 12. Food-at-home prices are now up 2.9% over the past year.

Fresh items did the damage. ABC News reported that fresh vegetables cost 11.5% more than a year ago, seafood prices are up 6.2%, and fresh fruits and vegetables jumped 2.3% in April from March. Dairy rose 0.8% in April after two straight monthly declines of 0.6%.

Diesel hit perishables

Food economist David Ortega told USA Today that energy costs from the Iran war are starting to show up in the cold chain, the refrigerated supply chain for perishable food. “Refrigerated trucking runs on diesel, and diesel is up sharply,” he said. Prepared salads jumped about 3% in a single month.

• Ground beef reached an all-time high and is up nearly 15% over the past year, according to CPI data cited by ABC News.
• Fresh tomatoes are up nearly 40% year over year, with analysts pointing to energy costs, weather damage in Mexico and Florida, and a 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes.
• Coffee prices jumped 18.5% over the year ending in April, while beef prices rose 14.8%.

Households adjusted. Ed Moore, a 79-year-old retiree in Louisville, told USA Today his latest grocery trip cost $95 for one week of food for one person. He said he has stopped buying new clothes, shops for deals, avoids name brands, and drives less since the Iran war began.

Andy Harig of the Food Industry Association told ABC News that higher energy and diesel prices raise costs for farmers, truckers, and grocers. He said energy will continue to put pressure on prices because food production is energy-intensive “from the field to the shelf to the table.” Ortega told USA Today that higher fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war may not be fully felt until next year.

Fuel costs are moving deeper into the food aisle after the Iran war blocked cargo ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil supplies. Gasoline has jumped more than 50% from pre-war levels, and U.S. consumers are paying an average of $4.51 per gallon, according to AAA.

Food prices were already rising in April. Prices for food eaten at home rose 2.9% from a year earlier, the fastest annual rate for groceries since August 2023. Overall food prices, including restaurants and prepared meals, rose 3.2%, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index.

Diesel hits delivery

Diesel is doing the work behind the grocery bill. It powers fishing boats, tractors and the trucks that ship 83% of U.S. agricultural products. As of Tuesday, the average diesel price per gallon was up 61% from a year earlier, according to AAA.

Raymond Campise, owner of Sparrow Market in Ann Arbor, Michigan, said meat, produce and dry goods vendors have added fuel surcharges to deliveries in recent weeks. Wholesale prices for meat, produce and some other products have also gone up. “For independent markets operating on narrow margins, even small increases can have a major impact,” Campise said.

• Fresh fruit and vegetable prices rose 6.5% from April 2025.
• Meat prices rose 8.8%, while beef prices were 15% higher year over year.
• Tomato prices rose 40% after the Trump administration imposed a 17% duty on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico in July 2025.
• Egg prices fell 39% as farmers rebuilt flocks hit by bird flu.

Purdue economists Ken Foster and Bernhard Dalheimer said higher costs to produce, process, store and transport food can take three to six months to show up on supermarket shelves. Foster said much of April’s food inflation probably predates the conflict. May and June food-price data will show more of what the Strait of Hormuz shock is doing to groceries.

Xi Jinping warned Donald Trump that Taiwan could put the U.S.-China relationship in “great jeopardy” if the issue of Taiwan independence is mishandled, telling Trump that Washington and Beijing could face “clashes and even conflicts”.

Trump left Beijing on Friday after a two-day summit with Xi. A U.S. business delegation also attended, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia chief Jensen Huang, according to the report.

Asia sold off

South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 6% Friday after breaching 8,000 earlier in the session. The benchmark closed at 7,493.18, while the small-cap Kosdaq fell more than 5% to 1,129.82.

• Samsung Electronics fell 8.6% after its labor union said it would proceed with an 18-day strike from May 21 involving more than 45,000 workers.
• SK Hynix declined 7.6%.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2% to 61,409.29, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 1.6% in its final hour of trading.

The Kospi’s fall came after a record-breaking streak that raised concerns over concentration risks, particularly in AI stocks. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together make up a record 42.2% of the index, according to Manulife Investment Management.

Samsung’s union said it was willing to return to negotiations after June 7, even though the company has proposed resuming wage talks without preconditions. The strike is still set to begin May 21.

• Watch whether AI-led equity momentum broadens or breaks: Goldman says risk appetite and momentum are elevated for the first time since 2000, while chip-heavy indexes face added Taiwan and concentration risk.
• May and June grocery data become the next inflation checkpoint, as fuel and refrigerated-transport costs can take three to six months to reach shelves and could keep pressure on perishables.
• Samsung’s labor dispute is the immediate supply-chain and market stress test: shares fell 8.6% ahead of a May 21 strike, with South Korean index concentration amplifying any follow-on moves.